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Only 48 hours before the New York race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange made a bold electoral prediction – going beyond the winner overall, and block by block. Lange, a political analyst who grew up in the city, devoted more than ten years in progressive politics and has become something of a local celebrity recently for his deep dives into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He published his highly detailed forecast map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani would win although missing Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his Substack, his platform. He has a flair for witty coinages. He pointed out, as an example, the split between the “commie corridor”, stretching from Park Slope to another area to Astoria, where he predicted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. In those areas, certain media outlets and financial newspapers outrank the New York Times” in audience and the majority of electors favored the independent, who ran as a conservative-courting independent.

Election Night Trends and Surprises

How was your election night?

I had to do that since they were dropping approximately 200K votes into the system every few minutes! I was actually a little nervous initially: The candidate was ahead the early vote by a dozen percentage points, but came two big batches of votes that came in after that and his lead went from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

You know, it was possible where election day turned out kind of poorly for him, where Cuomo would have essentially doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. But the winner added 500,000 votes to his initial base, and this was critical why he won. He went out and greatly broadened his support from the first round.

Expanding Support

How did the mayor-elect gain additional support from?

He assembled the coalition that the left long aimed for: diverse racially, it’s young, tenants and individuals facing cost pressures. He gained considerably with Black and Hispanic voters, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the earlier election. Additionally he further maximized his core of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He created the coalition that progressives long aimed for: multiracial, youthful, tenants and people struggling with costs

Additionally, there were a number of supporters of both candidates – is that a big trend?

It is a real thing, confined to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Islamic voters. Electors in ethnic enclaves that went for Trump previously went for the progressive this year. However I wouldn’t say he was gaining white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Effects

One of the big stories of the election was the record turnout. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Participation was significantly higher than anticipated. I figured we might go over two million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – which is a lot of darn voters. Existed a decent anti-Mamdani block, energized, but his supporters was equally driven, and that sufficed to win.

You forecasted he’d exceed half the ballots. Is he likely for that?

Currently you would say he’s favored to get over half. He’s at 50.4% but there’s still around 200K ballots left to report as of Wednesday morning. So I don’t think certain, but I believe probable, and I hope he does so afterwards no one can say the Republican was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the Republican candidate, is the other big story. His support completely collapsed.

He didn’t win any district in any area. Including one neighborhood in Staten Island, similar to an highly conservative area. That really surprised me. The independent held Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and then added many Republicans on the island with a strong turnout. I believe there was significant strategic balloting by GOP voters. They were doing it prior to the former president endorsed for Cuomo, but that definitely helped. It could have even turned the tide if Mamdani’s coalition failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your often-discussed left-wing base – was support for Mamdani dominant in those parts of the boroughs?

In my view there was some weakening of the progressive zone in some areas like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. In Astoria, for example, the Greek landlords and residents supported the independent. So there existed a little resistance. However overall, largely the commie corridor is another huge reason why Zohran won – he was polling between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the election there was coverage on whether Mamdani was gaining ground with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

There are areas with a lot of non-religious and left-inclined voters – like Park Slope and Morningside Heights – where he did well. But in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Manhattan area, his position on Israel definitely mattered there. Similarly in the moderate communities like Queens neighborhoods, or Bronx areas – they all leaned the independent. Plus, you have Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in the borough, they were pretty staunchly Cuomo. Therefore I don’t know if there were crazy narrative-busters here, but he retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Political Impact

Has Mamdani rewritten what New York means politically? Will commie corridor become a launch pad for progressive contenders?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that some of the biggest figures from progressives hail from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I believe that there will be additional examples – people will emerge from these neighborhoods to be promoted to higher office.

However I believe that every city in the US could develop similar progressive hubs. Cities are the centers of progressive influence in the nation – because youth reside there, tenancy is common and they are places where people are crushed by the inequalities we face.